Case No.8 of 1999

Present : 1) Shri D.K. Roy, Chairman

2) Shri H.S. Sahu, Member

PRELIMINARY:

1.

The issue arose out of condition 20 of the Orissa Transmission & Bulk Supply License which requires the licensee i.e. Grid Corporation of Orissa Limited (Thereinafter to be referred as GRIDCO) to

a)

Prepare and submit every year to the Commission for approval long term demand for power or load forecasts for the power system in Orissa for succeeding 10 years and in particular provide to the Commission details of the demand forecasts and the data, methodology and assumptions on which those forecasts are based; and

b)

Prepare and submit to the Commission at such intervals as decided by the Commission for approval of its long term plan for power procurement and transmission expansion so as to meet load forecast as in (a) above.

2.

GRIDCO failed to submit its long term transmission system planning in response to Commission’s directions contained in letter No.1352 dated 30.05.1997.

3.

The Commission decided to take up the matter of transmission system planning through a proceeding and Case No.8/1999 was initiated requiring GRIDCO to appear before the Commission on 30.04.1999 and make a comprehensive presentation covering all aspects of transmission system planning. No material hearing of the case could be taken up as GRIDCO repeatedly failed to present their case on some plea or other. The Commission during hearing of the case on 29.01.2000 ordered that GRIDCO may be transposed as petitioner and all the four Distribution Companies, industries having Captive Power Plants and Generating Companies should be impleaded as opposite parties/respondents in the case. Notices were accordingly issued to the concerned parties to appear before the Commission on 25.02.2000.

4.

GRIDCO, in the meanwhile, had submitted their first Transmission Planning Report on 09.07.1999 and (Revised) Transmission Planning Report on 07.01.2000. These planning reports relied on load forecast data submitted to the Commission during 1996 which were not updated till submission of these reports. Loads projected three years before would no longer hold good. Transmission system planning on the basis of these reports would result in a gross under utilisation of capital investment and capacities of the system. These reports were, therefore not considered for approval as such. The Commission called for fresh data on long term demand for power to be submitted by the Distribution Companies for proper assessment of the situation.

5.

In the course of hearings conducted on 25.02.2000, 09.05.2000, 16.05.2000, 14.07.2000 and subsequent mutual discussions between GRIDCO AND Distribution Companies under the auspices of the office of Commission, the Distribution Companies were urged to submit the demand forecast in respect of their areas of supply. GRIDCO in their submission on 04.09.2000 confirmed receipt of load forecast reports from all the four distribution companies. Notices were issued to all parties to appear before the Commission on 13.10.2000.

O R D E R :-

6.

The Commission heard the petitioner on 13.10.2000 presenting the load forecast report for the Orissa Power System for the year 2000 to year 2010. Replies filed by such of the respondents in this case, were taken into record and are dealt with separately in subsequent paragraphs of the order. The petitioner filed later on 24.10.2000, ‘Load Flow Study 2005 Condition’ in connection with transmission planning, which was taken into record for further analysis and order.

7.

The forecasts of demand as prepared by the Distribution Companies and incorporated in their report by GRIDCO have not met any or some of the following requirements of license condition and Distribution System Planning and Security Standards.

• Methodology and assumptions on which these forecasts are based

• Forecasts should take into account consumption pattern of consumers

• Specific references of contract loads of 5 MW and above.

8.

There is no indication in the load forecasts to bring down substantially the existing level of transmission and distribution losses, which are reported to be as high as 46 %.

9.

Reduction of transmission and distribution losses which is a major factor determining the quantum of power to be purchased and ultimately the economics of power supply have not been addressed adequately and satisfactorily by the licensees. It has been stated that during the base year (1999-00) 45% of the losses are due to technical reasons while 55% of the losses are due to non-technical reasons. Substantial reduction in overall losses would result if effective time bound measures are initiated to minimize the non-technical losses which are mostly due to pilferage, defective meters and wrong billing. The Commission is of the view, that it should be possible to bring down the non-technical losses substantially by taking stringent administrative measures for eliminating unauthorised connections, launching massive drive for replacement of defective meters and such other measures required to remove difference in meter reading and billing. It is expected that in future load forecasts, sufficient care should be exercised by the licensees to address to this problem. Similarly the technical losses should also be brought down to a reasonable level by upgrading and optimising the distribution system as required.

10.

While furnishing their forecasts of peak demand and energy demand it is imperative that the Distribution Companies shall take into account the impact of demand side management measures, on the net demand of consumers.

11.

The overall annual average percentage energy and demand growth in the areas of supply of the licenses in the period from year 2000 to 2010 computed from GRIDCO’s submission dt.13.10.2000 has been estimated to vary from 2.6% to 7.3%. The rationale behind such varying rates of growth in contiguous regions has not been explained. The licensees would be well advised to work out load forecasts assuming low, high and probable growth rates on the basis of characteristic consumption pattern of consumers in different categories in the different scenarios and come out with a most probable load forecast.

12.

The load forecasts should give due weightage to the industrial loads which constitute a major portion of the total demand. Procedure of dealing with applications of industrial consumers with contract demand of 5 MW and above is given in ‘Distribution (Conditions of Supply) Code and ‘Distribution System Planning and Security Standards’. It would be erroneous to prepare a load forecast ignoring major industrial loads in the area that might materialise in the next five years. It would therefore, be incumbent on the licensees to collect data and information regarding probable setting up of industries with loads of 5MW and above in their respective areas by contacting Government Department (Industries Deptt., IPICOL, IDCO, etc), Railways, Coal Fields, Mining, Financial institutions, Banks, Prospective industrial consumers, etc, for including such loads in their load forecasts.

13.

We find that GRIDCO have not furnished historical data of aggregate energy demand and peak demand of the Orissa Power System. This would have provided a better insight to the load factor of the system, diversity factor of zonal demand and facilitated projection of load factor over the years. It is expected that this may be taken into account by GRIDCO in their future load forecasts.

14.

GRIDCO have submitted a load flow study for 2005 condition vide their letter No.2715 dated 24.10.2000, which the Commission wishes to comment upon. Load flow study is one of the studies which the licensee is required to conduct for the transmission system planning. The other studies are short circuit study and transient stability study. At the outset, the Commission wishes to place on record that the load flow study, as submitted, is incomplete, as the study is not made under both the High Hydro and High Thermal Conditions and under Single Outage conditions, as provided in Transmission Planning and Security Standards’. Without complete power system studies, the adequacy of the proposed transmission network both under steady state (normal), steady state (outage) and transient state cannot be judged.

15.

The study reveals that many of the proposed lines are under utilised (they carry 10% or even less of their rated capacity). This phenomenon has apparently been the consequence of considering all the lines that were envisaged for implementation to match the earlier load forecasts of GRIDCO in 1996. A comparative study of 1996 load forecasts and present load forecasts reveals that while the earlier load forecast projected a load of 3938 MW in the year 2005 the present projection is only 2405 MW. Evidently the licensee have not applied their mind to this situation. This situation would have been averted, had the licensee been reviewing the long term load forecasts every year as required under license conditions. This calls for an immediate review of the implementation programme of the various ongoing transmission schemes by GRIDCO to explore possibility of deferring/dropping such of the schemes which cannot be technically and economically justified. Views of Central Electricity Authority in this regard may be obtained.

16.

VAR generation to the extent of 259.86 MVAR has been indicated in the Load Flow Study 2005 condition through installation of shunt capacitors at various places. GRIDCO may submit a report for information of the Commission on the status of installation of capacitors.

17.

Due to transport of bulk power between different regions through inter-state lines, effect of outage of such lines on the grid assumes importance. In this context, power system studies should take into account outage and fault conditions on the 400 KV AC and HVDC inter-state lines (both existing and upcoming).

18.

The Commission finds that some of the objections filed before the Commission in this case have not been addressed to by M/s GRIDCO. These are referred to below and GRIDCO directed to consider the objector’s requirement, in their future planning under intimation to the Commission.

1. Letter No.OHPC/329/2000/7164 dated 11.5.2000 from Director (Operation), OHPC, Bhubaneswar.

2. Letter No.IR/AAP/PROJ/2905 dated 8.5.2000 from M/s Aditya Aluminium, Bhubaneswar.

3. Letter No.FCP/CPP/ELE/32/2040 dated 8.6.2000 from G.M., Ferro Chrome Plant, IDCO, Bhubaneswar.

- Action by GRIDCO

1. With regard to item 18 (i)

OHPC had argued for

1. Completion of at least one no. of 220 KV DC line for Upper Indravati to Theruvali before August 2000 to evacuate power from UIHEP as 3^rd unit is scheduled to be commissioned by the end of August 2000 . Further, augmentation of Theruvali sub-station and beyond is also necessary.

2. Strengthening the 132 KV Chiplima Bargarh Transmission line by making necessary changes in the equipment like CTS etc. at both ends since it is already over loaded.

3. Providing a 220 KV s/s at Burla and shifting all 132 KV, 66 KV and 11 KV feeders from P/H switch yard to this sub-station.
   GRIDCO, responding to above arguments of OHPC has submitted that -
   
   220 KV D.C. line from UHIEP to Theruvali-
   Presently, to the extent of 500 MW power from Indravati can be evacuated through the 400 KV PGCIL line . 220 KV DC line from Indravati to Theruvali would be completed by March 2001 in ADB scheme. The other 220 kv dc line under World Bank Scheme is scheduled to be completed by September 2002. GRIDCO has not commented any thing regarding augumention of Theruvali s/s and at it’s down stream strengthening for effective evacuation of UIHEP power. Commission directs GRIDCO to examine this aspect and implement the needful change.
   
   132 KV Bargarh-Chiplima line-
   The deficiencies observed while thermo vision scanning of the 132 KV Bargarh-Chiplima line at Chiplima switch yard was communicated by GRIDCO to Manager, Operation, Chiplima P/H and E.E., E&MR, GRIDCO on 15.03.2000 for rectification. It was further reminded on 12.05.2000. 132 KV CT of higher capacity at Bargarh switch yard for Chiplima feeder has since been installed.
   The line can now transmit up to 50 MW. 220/132 KV Bolangir S/S is expected by Sept. 2002. This will off load 132 KV Chiplima-Bargarh. line. As short term measures, the Burla-Bolangir 220 KV DC line which is expected by March 2001 can be charged at 132 KV to feed Bolangir from Burla.

   Shifting of feeders from Burla Power House-
   WESCO has been advised by GRIDCO to take measures by drawing 33 KV lines from Chiplima P/H to Burla proposed s/s and then extend the same to Hirakud S/S on existing 66 KV line. This will relieve Burla PH from existing 66 KV, 11 KV & 0.4 KV S/Ss. WESCO is expected to complete it by March 2001.

2. With regard to item (ii)

   There was no representative from M/S-Aditya Aluminum to present their objection.
   GRIDCO may separately communicate their views to the Commission in this regard.

3. With regard to item (iii)

   There was no representative from M/s Ferro Chrome Plant to present their objection.
   GRIDCO may separately communicate their views to the Commission in this regard.

Thus, above three objections are disposed of.

19.

M/s NESCO in their letter No.2580 dated 17.5.2000 brought to the notice of the Commission for early completion of some of the schemes by GRIDCO for improvement of power supply in their area. These have already been referred to by GRIDCO in their letter No.SGM(PS)-PL-GC-19/2000/2715 dated 24.10.2000. A copy of this correspondence may be furnished to NESCO. Application of M/s NESCO is hereby disposed.

20.

With the above remarks and observations, we hold that load forecasts as submitted by GRIDCO for the period 2000 to 1010 may be partly accepted up to the year 2005 only, as of now. The Distribution Companies namely M/s CESCO, M/s NESCO, M/s WESCO and Ms/ SOUTHCO shall submit load forecasts for the respective areas of supply in terms of condition 19.2 of the license by 31^st December, 2001 taking into account the Commissions observations made in this order and any other guide lines that may be issued by the Commission in this regard, in the meanwhile.

21.

M/s GRIDCO shall submit to the Commission for approval, long term load forecasts for the power systems in Orissa for succeeding 10 years (i.e. from year 2002 to 2011), long term plans for power procurement and transmission expansion in terms of condition 20 of the license by 31^st March, 2002.

22.

Commission directs that the Distribution Licensees and GRIDCO shall exercise caution in preparing the load forecasts and the plan having due regard to the technical and economical complexities involved and if necessary to induct appropriate expertise for successful handling of their responsibilities in this regard.

(H.S. SAHU)
MEMBER

(D.K. ROY)
CHAIRMAN